This Week; after last week’s increase in rates this week has a lot of potential impact on rates. Treasury will auction $99B of notes ($35B 2 yrs on Tuesday, $35B of 5 yrs on Wednesday, and $29B of 7 yr notes on Thursday). Tuesday night the State of the Union address to Congress. Wednesday the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. Friday the first look at Q4 GDP. Mixed in all of it, a few key economic reports. Technically, the 10yr treasury has broken its key averages at 2.02%, the MBS market also has moved below its 20 day average on the price, but still is holding its longer term 40 day average.
The FOMC meeting won’t likely have any new policy implications; the Fed will continue to keep the FF rate at 0.0% to 0.25% as Bernanke indicated months ago. We are not looking for another QE from the Fed; Europe for the moment has stabilized somewhat and the US economy is likely to have grown 3.1% in Q4. Europe’s impact on US markets has lessened recently with Italy and Spain able to auction debt at better rates than two months ago. The debt problems however, are far from being over, it will continue to be a factor throughout this year and at times roil US markets. We are looking for flat markets early this week.
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE…Well, we can all make our way with a bit of a smile on our faces, courtesy of the latest Housing Starts numbers. At first blush, the December report seemed disappointing, down 4% for the month. But starts overall are UP 24.9% from a year ago and December’s drop was all from multi-family starts, very volatile month-to-month. Single-family starts were UP 4.4% for the month and UP 11.6% for the year. No wonder the National Association of Home Builders confidence index went to 25, its highest reading since 2007.
For those who still couldn’t put on a happy face, Friday’s data should have done the trick. Existing Home Sales were UP 5% in December, their third consecutive gain, to their highest level since January 2011. The inventory of existing homes is down 21% from last year and the months’ supply dropped to 6.2, the lowest level since April 2006. For all of 2011, sales of single-family homes, townhomes, condos and co-ops rose 1.7%, to 4.26 million units.
Blessings,
